In a performance of nationalism, President Donald Trump’s administration has threatened — and recently imposed — dramatic tariffs on the importation of goods to the United States from other nations. Trump has changed his mind dozens of times on the details of these tariffs. In the latest iteration, new modifications took effect on Aug. 7, with more coming this Friday Aug. 29.
The chaos over tariffs highlights another reality: America’s trade partners remain tied to the country’s fossil fuel-based economy, meaning that decreased trade with the U.S. will reduce the trade of anything made of or transported by fossil fuels. An unintended side effect of the tariffs is to reveal that many U.S. trading partners have failed to fulfill their promises to curtail — and have often increased — their fossil fuel extraction and exportation to benefit from the American market.
As the largest importer of goods in the world, the U.S. has an outsized influence on the economies of its trade partners. But the U.S. became a global superpower by virtue of its fossil fuel economy and, as a result, the largest sector this trade war will affect is the energy sector. Even if tariffs don’t explicitly target the trade of energy (unsurprisingly, oil and gas is a category that won’t see many tariffs), the fossil fuel industry is enmeshed in every portion of U.S. trade. Because most U.S. imports are fossil fuels or the countless products made from them (plastics, car parts, and cosmetics for example), tariffs could act somewhat like a carbon tax: U.S. importers will effectively pay fees on the production and burning of fossil fuels used in the manufacture of goods, and on the manufacturing of fossil fuel-based products themselves.
Thus, a move away from trading with a country that depends on fossil fuels could force other nations to re-evaluate the foundation of their economies — economies which today ride on the back of the U.S.’ avarice for energy and consumer goods produced via fossil fuels.
Take Canada for instance. As a Canadian living in the U.S., I’ve been observing both sides of this trade war. And as an environmental scientist, I am also growing concerned about what it means for climate change. Canada has long been America’s top trading partner, exporting 77 percent of its goods to the U.S. in 2023. But Canada’s top export overall is fossil fuels, more than double the next highest export: cars, which are on average 50 percent plastic by volume.
The trade of fossil fuels undergirds the entire Canadian economy, a reality hidden behind the country’s promises to dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions. Like most countries, Canada only reports domestic emissions, but their largest source of greenhouse gases is actually the exportation of fossil fuels. These exports, when burned, cause emissions that far exceed the country’s domestic emissions. The U.S. was the recipient of 96 percent of Canada’s exported fossil fuels in 2023, and to meet the demand, fossil fuel extraction in Canada has been increasing. Indeed, Canada grew its export emissions by nearly 60 percent from 2012 to 2023.
Like most countries, Canada only reports domestic emissions, but their largest source of greenhouse gases is actually the exportation of fossil fuels.
When you consider export emissions, Canada emitted approximately 43 metric tons of carbon dioxide per capita in 2023 (Qatar, the highest per capita emitter in the world, came in around 39 to 44 metric tons, not counting export emissions.) This is despite tremendous resource availability and low population density in Canada. In fact, only 33 percent of all energy produced in Canada in 2023 was used domestically.
Canada may find other markets for its oil and gas, but it doesn’t need to export fossil fuels. The country is rich in other resources. It has one of the highest potentials in the world for wind power, could power all of its residential buildings (and half of its commercial ones) by investing heavily in rooftop solar, and has the third highest hydroelectric energy generation in the world. Canada is a global leader in nuclear energy, which currently produces about 15 percent of the country’s power. Considering all of its renewable energy resources, Canada has the potential to be independent of fossil fuels, and these sectors are all valuable creators of jobs in every province of the country.
Instead, Canada has been hiding its own fossil fuel economy behind greenwashed headlines and misplaced outrage at American capitalism. The country proudly reported an 8.5 percent decrease in greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 to 2023 (well below the trajectory for reaching its target of a 40 percent decrease by 2030), but the methodology used to report greenhouse gas emissions typically has a standard deviation of at least 5 to 10 percent. In other words, the reported change in emissions could be within the margin of error, and the decrease in emissions may be much smaller, or even zero. In that same timeframe, crude oil production in Canada increased 210 percent.
For Canada, Trump’s constantly shifting policies have already had an impact financially and culturally. For example, I’ve had family afraid to bring their cellphones across the border and friends cancel trips. Canada’s largest food retailer has even added the letter “T” to the prices of items which have gotten more expensive due to the tariffs — 7,500 products bear the new initial so far. Indeed, a new report by The Budget Lab at Yale University revealed that Canadians will be some of the most affected by Trump’s tariffs — they have shrunk Canada’s economy by 2.1 percent in 2025, to date.
The relationship between the global economy and the American fossil-fueled way of life has undoubtedly had a major impact on our failure to mitigate climate change.
But Canada isn’t the only country that will be affected by the trade war. Today 80 percent of the global population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels. How can we break the toxic fossil fuel cycle when our global leader is extracting more fossil fuels than ever, when climate denial reaches even the highest levels of its government, and when its populace shows disturbing displays of consumerism?
The relationship between the global economy and the American fossil-fueled way of life has undoubtedly had a major impact on our failure to mitigate climate change. In the latest data from the United Nation’s COP29 climate conference, there is no indication of any transition away from burning fossil fuels, despite decades of urging by concerned scientists and policymakers. Oil and gas production and burning continue to rise, and correspondingly, global emissions are ever-increasing — they’re up by almost 8 percent in 2024 from 2015.
We have known for decades that combating climate change means reshaping the global energy landscape. America’s trading partners have continued to hedge their economies on the U.S.’ fossil fuel capitalism, but as bridges are being burned, new models can emerge. Against all odds, Trump’s tariffs could push its trade partners away from their reliance on America’s rapacious appetite for fossil fuels and to greener pastures.
Veronique Carignan is an environmental chemist and former professor of chemical oceanography. She now works as an environmental activist and freelance climate journalist.